Five Indian states giving about 27% of the country’s GDP are showing a recovery in the economy from the lockdown. The study by Elara Securities Inc. shows states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Punjab, and Karnataka improved their activity based on an analysis in the areas of power consumption, traffic movement, the arrival of the farm, products at the wholesome market, google mobility data, on the other hand, industrialized states like Maharashtra and Gujarat are facing a tough time due to the spread of pandemic COVID 19 on those areas.
India will start a position of the lifting of nationwide lockdown from June 8 onwards.
A recent study showed that states like Punjab and Haryana showed an improvement in areas like electricity and increased demand in the farm operation. And the capital city Delhi showed a rise in power demand and mobility trends. When the first lockdown was announced consumers were in panic which resulted in a sudden increase in demand for essentials like pharmacy, grocery, and liquid soaps. When the lockdown continues consumers buying pattern shifts from luxury to essential commodities because of decline in income level of consumers leads to the rapid decrease in demand on commodities like jewelry, mobile phones, hair oil, mops, earphones, microwave oven, etc.
According to the Fitch rating, the Indian economy is expected to show a projected growth rate of 9.5 in FY21 concerning the current year estimated growth rate of 3.9%.UN reports say that the Indian economy could recover up to 6.6 % in 2020-21. The combination of fiscal stimulus and financial sector reforms augmented Investment and consumption will support the recovery of the economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi says that the Indian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 5.7% in FY19-20. Compared to other states Kerala is best planned to solve the impact of the COVID 19 crisis. But coming to the economy it is a big cost to the state. On April 14 Kerala has witnessed 82 % of loss in aggregate in GDP level. Almost every industry was closed, IT sectors are shut down. The demand for commodities is reserved for particular to essential commodities. But even though Kerala state has a potentiality to recover from the economic slowdown and expecting 0.3 % growth in Total GDP contribution in FY 2021-22.
