The economy of India contracted dramatically by 23.9% in June, most of which is anticipated by the sector. What troubled the investors, however, was the differences behind the estimate rather than the headline text. The Central Statistical Organization (CSO), as the lock-down for the first two months of this quarter, made this difficult, faced an enormous challenge in gathering data for the GDP.
“The usual sources of data have been replaced with alternatives such as GST and contacts with explicitly restricted professional bodies,” the official GDP release of the Government said. Economists have created their own proprietary indices, which can be more accurate to calculate the economic impact.
The Google Mobility Index, which tracks visits to various places, such as retail stores, working sites, parks, and transport hub, was one of the most common indicators since the pandemic struck.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is one of the unexpected factors that could give rise to recovery. The Reserve Bank of India, Governor Shaktikanta Das said in an interview with a TV channel that the central bank evaluates many indicators, of which WPI inflation was one.
Recent headline prints have shown that manufacturers are far from regaining price power. This shows that demand is still to be regenerated.
Besides, GST’s gross revenue in July was Rs.87,422 crore, which was 14 percent lower than in the previous year.
The generation of e-way bills for April, May, June, and July stood at 16%, 46%, 79%, and 88%, respectively, of pre-COVID levels, but returned to 80%. The most recent data shown by ICICI Direct was mid-August.
The economics of Nomura reported that, in a statement of August 25, the recovery remains uneven with a faster increase in the supply versus demand, rural consumption versus urban and industrial sectors versus services.
These measures are an indication of what is to be expected in the months to come, said the chief economist, HDFC Bank, Abheek Barua. “In our economic activity indexes, we and others have taken the mobility index. This accurately captures or lacks changes in various segments, “he said.
In short, economic growth is fragile, and energy use and fuel consumption demonstrated how the growth of industrial production can be long led. Most indicators have shown that the initial progress in June has diminished in July.
The trend in e-way bill generation, which shows also that the recovery rate in June and July has not continued according to the latest data, is another well-reached indicator of the economy.
Many companies now note a steady decline in demand. Therefore, it is still not clear how the data will work out in the coming months.
