According to new research from market research firm Omdia, GAMA (Google, Amazon, Meta (formerly Facebook), and Apple) will control 70% of the online advertising market outside of China by the end of 2021.
The latest forecast comes from Omdia’s Advertising Intelligence Service, which provides net advertising revenue forecasts for 67 countries and global regions, broken down by media, company, and format.
In 2020, GAMA outperformed the overall global advertising market, growing by 17 percent in total revenue compared to a 1% decline in total global net media advertising revenue. This market outperformance continued into 2021, boosting GAMA’s share of total global net media advertising revenue as media owners, which stood at 33% in 2020 and is expected to reach 39% by the end of 2021
In 2021, Google will continue to outperform the overall advertising market. “Based on Google’s results for the first three quarters of 2021, we are projecting full-year growth of 40.6 percent – its highest full-year growth since 2007.” said Marija Masalskis, senior principal analyst at Omdia.
While market leaders in traditional media segments, such as linear television, will continue to enjoy strong positions in their increasingly small corners of the market, GAMA’s dominance of online advertising appears set to continue unabated, according to Omdia analysis.
As a result, despite efforts to increase scale and technological integration through new partnerships and consolidation, media owners outside of GAMA’s walled gardens will see their share of the total market shrink.
Due to the strength of first-party data and user reach, they enjoy within their own ecosystems; these players will be more heavily impacted by privacy pivots and the impending death of cookies – expected to begin in 2H23 – than the tech giants.
When their roles as ad technology and network providers are considered, GAMA’s strength in the advertising market grows even more. GAMA’s share of total net media advertising revenue rises to 45 percent in 2021 when all online ad revenue flows through their platforms is included, and its share of the online segment rises to 65 percent. This means that Google, Amazon, Meta, and Apple will only receive 35% of global online ad revenue generated by media owners in 2021.
GAMA’s share of total net media advertising revenue rises to 46% in 2021 when China is excluded – the world’s second-largest advertising market where GAMA’s ad operations are prohibited – while their share of online advertising revenue rises to 70% in the same year – or 81 percent if all online ad revenue flowing through their platforms is included. By 2025, GAMA’s media owner share of total net media advertising revenue outside of China will reach 51%.
When you look at GAMA on a company-by-company basis, you’ll notice that each has overlapping but distinct dominance over certain online advertising segments.
Outside of China, Google continues to be the undisputed leader in online paid search advertising, accounting for 73 percent of total global revenue in 2021.
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