­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­India’s Economic Resilence: Mazars Macro-Tracker Series Reveals 8.4% GDP Surge, US$623.2 Billion Foreign Reserves Peak, and Sectoral Growth in Q3 FY24

India’s macro-economic landscape continues to exhibit resilience, as unveiled by Mazars in India’s Macro-Tracker Series. As per the report, the country’s economic prowess shines through its robust 8.4% GDP growth rate in Q3 FY24, with notable expansions in the manufacturing sector at 11.6% and the construction sector at 9.5%. Despite a slight contraction of 3.2% in government consumption, India’s economic fundamentals remain robust. Furthermore, India’s foreign exchange reserves surged to US$623.2 billion, reaching a 21-month peak, while FDI inflows, though experiencing a 13% decline, witnessed an 18.0% upswing in the October-December quarter. This holistic analysis provides valuable insights into India’s economic trajectory and prospects for sustainable growth.

The Macro-Tracker Series offers a comprehensive analysis encompassing key indicators such as Real GDP and Real GVA, inflation rates, international trade dynamics, fiscal parameters, business indices, consumer sentiment, and the anticipated impact of elections on India’s growth in FY24.

Bharat Dhawan, Managing Partner at Mazars in India, expressed, “As India navigates the current economic landscape, strategic policy measures, private investments, and sustained consumer confidence will drive economic resilience and growth. This period marks a pivotal juncture for India’s role in shaping international trade, innovation, and sustainable development.” He further added, “The stellar GDP growth in Q3 underscores India’s resilience and potential in navigating economic challenges. The buoyancy exhibited by key sectors is a testament to the country’s robust economic fundamentals.

Real GDP and Real GVA

India’s economic prowess is evident in its robust 8.4% GDP growth rate in Q3 FY24, surpassing expectations and demonstrating sustained momentum. Noteworthy expansions were seen in the manufacturing sector at 11.6% and the construction sector at 9.5%, while government consumption experienced a slight contraction of 3.2%.

GDP Growth Rate Expectations

The World Bank and IMF maintain positive outlooks for India’s GDP growth in FY24, with the World Bank expecting 6.3% growth and the IMF revising its forecast to 6.7%. This optimism reflects confidence in India’s economic trajectory amid global uncertainties.

Inflation

India’s inflation rates, measured by CPI and WPI, showcase stability within the RBI’s targeted range. While the CPI rose slightly to 5.69% in December 2023, it remained within the 2-6% range since September 2023. The WPI, at 0.73% in December, reflects moderate inflationary pressures.

International Trade

India’s trade deficit witnessed improvement, with a significant decrease by 35.87% in April-December 2023 compared to the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves surged to US$623.2 billion, marking a 21-month peak, while FDI inflows, though declining by 13%, saw an 18.0% increase in the October-December quarter.

Fiscal Indicators

Government revenue and expenditure dynamics indicate prudent fiscal management, with the fiscal deficit reaching INR 9.8 lakh crore by December 2023. GST revenue collections saw robust growth of 12.0% during April-December 2023, contributing to enhanced capital expenditure.

Business and Consumer Indices

India’s industrial production grew by 3.8% in December 2023, with credit growth maintaining resilience despite minor fluctuations. Consumer confidence and unemployment rates depict a recovering yet cautious sentiment among households, signalling ongoing economic adjustments.

Election Impact on Growth

The forthcoming elections in India hold significance for economic policies and global engagements. The growth trajectory post-elections is anticipated to align with evolving global trade patterns, technological advancements, and sustainability imperatives.

The Macro-Tracker Series by Mazars in India provides valuable insights into India’s economic landscape, guiding stakeholders and investors in navigating opportunities and challenges.