New Delhi, October 3rd, 2022: According to the ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) opinion poll, the ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is predicted to win the elections for a record seventh time since 1995, in Gujarat. The BJP is anticipated to win between 135-143 seats, which would represent a significant gain from its 2017 total tally of 99 seats.
ABP News-CVoter opinion poll has conducted survey on the caste equation in the state of Gujarat.
The uppercaste hindus have reposed their faith with BJP with a prediction of 57% vote share, whereas Congress will be getting 26% & AAP will be getting 14% of vote share in 2022 polls. The Dalit vote share this time will be 39% for BJP, Congress is predicted to get 38%, whereas AAP is predicted to get 20% Dalit vote share.
BJP is predicted to get 54% OBC vote share this time. Congress is predicted to get 26% vote share & AAP predicted to get 16% of OBC Vote share.
BJP has seen a decline in The Muslim vote factor, with BJP just getting 23% vote share whereas the Congress & AAP gaining from the loss of BJP with 45 % & 30% of Muslim vote factor.
The opinion poll this time amongst The Game Changer Tribal vote bank, has predicted that BJP is predicted to get 41% vote share. Congress is predicted to get 37% vote share & AAP predicted to get 18% vote share of the tribals.
The important Leuva Patels & Kadva Patel voters seemed to be sticking with BJP with 51% & 49% vote share, whereas the congress is predicted to get 30% & 34% of Leuva & Kadva patel vote share. Whereas AAP who is contesting for the first time in Gujarat Assembly polls is predicted to get 15% & 14% of Leuva & Kadva patel votes.
The Opinion poll has shown that Women Voters is predicted to support BJP with 45% vote share. Congress lagging behind with just 35% & AAP with just 17% vote share.
The survey was conducted amongst youth upto 25 years, the youth of the state is still reposing their faith with BJP with a predicted vote share of 43%, with congress getting 39% vote share from voters & AAP getting 15% of vote share.
Methodology:
This poll is based on surveys conducted between 1st July to 30th September and C Voter has made sure that the analysis is properly represented by statistically balancing the data to make it reflective of the local population according to the most recent census results. This survey is based on CATI interviews with respondents who are adults (18+) and represent all segments.
Time frame: 1st July – 30th September
MOE (Margin of Error) and Sample
Gujarat: 34511 respondents for 182 seats with MOE +/- 3% to +/- 5%
