Aam Aadmi Party’s entry into the poll fray is likely to benefit BJP as the incumbent government is projected to win landslide victory in Gujarat and a comfortable win in Himachal Pradesh
New Delhi, October 2nd, 2022: According to the ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) opinion poll, the ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is predicted to win the elections for a record seventh time since 1995, in Gujarat. The BJP is anticipated to win between 135-143 seats, which would represent a significant gain from its 2017 total tally of 99 seats. However, as a result of a strong challenge posed by AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) as a strong third force, the vote shares of the BJP and INC (Indian National Congress) is likely to drop below 2017 levels. According to projections, the BJP will receive 46.8% (down from 49.1% in 2017) of vote share, followed by the INC with 32.3% (down from 41.4% in 2017), and AAP is likely to garner a sizeable vote share of 17.4%. Accordingly, INC is likely to win 36-44 seats. It is predicted that AAP would win 0–2 seats. Others are likely to receive a vote share of 3.5% and win 0–3 seats.
(Detailed projected seats table attached)
Additionally, ABP News-CVoter conducted a tracker in October and one of the questions posed to the voters was their preferred choice for the Chief Minister’s post. In response to the question 34.6% respondents favoured Bhupdender Bhai Patel (BJP), 15.6% favoured an AAP’s candidate, 9.2% favoured Vijay Rupani (BJP), 5.0% favoured Nitin Bhai Patel (BJP), 4.9% favoured Shakti Singh Gohil (Congress), 4.0% Bharat Sinh Solanki (Congress), 3.7% favoured C R Patil (BJP), 2.9% favoured Hardik Patel and 2.8% favoured Arjun Modwadia (Congress) as their choice for the CM’s post.
Himachal Pradesh
In Himachal Pradesh ABP News-CVoter opinion poll predicts a comfortable victory for the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections. While the party’s vote share may decline from its 2017 levels of 48.8% to 45.2%, they are projected to win between 37–45 seats and return to power, beating the anti-incumbency. The vote share of INC is likely to fall from 41.7% in 2017 to 33.9% in 2022, and it is expected have a tally of 21–29 seats. AAP’s much-hyped election campaign in Himachal is not expected to make any substantial gains as the party is only expected to win 0-1 seats. However, they are likely to garner a sizable chunk of 9.5% of votes, while others are expected to win 0-3 seats and receive a vote share of 11.4%.
(Detailed projected seats table attached)
ABP News-CVoter conducted a tracker in October and one of the questions posed to the voters was their preferred choice for the Chief Minister’s post. 31.7% people favoured Jai Ram Thakur (BJP), 19.5% favoured Anurag Thakur (BJP), 15.0% favoured Pratibha Singh (Congress), 9.5% favoured an Aam Aadmi Party Candidate and 5.0% favoured Mukhesh Agnihotri (Congress) as their choice for the CM’s post.
Methodology:
This poll is based on surveys conducted between 1st July to 30th September and C Voter has made sure that the analysis is properly represented by statistically balancing the data to make it reflective of the local population according to the most recent census results. This survey is based on CATI interviews with respondents who are adults (18+) and represent all segments.
Time frame: 1st July – 30th September
MOE (Margin of Error) and Sample
Gujarat: 34511 respondents for 182 seats with MOE +/- 3% to +/- 5%
Himachal Pradesh: 31110 respondents for 68 seats with a MOE of +/- 3% to +/- 5%
