The international spot gold rate hit an all-time record high of $1,945 an ounce on Monday, breaching the nine-year-old record of $1,921 an ounce, amid rising tensions between the US and China, and worsening Covid-19 crisis. The yellow metal was trading around $1,942 at 8.12 IST.
Silver too, was trading above the $24 an ounce-mark as investors continued to rush toward safe-haven assets.
In Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar, standard gold
closed at Rs 52,309 per 10 grams, up from Friday’s closing of Rs 50,919.
Silver. On the other hand, closed at Rs 64,505 a kg, against Friday’s Rs
59,885. On the MCX, August 5 futures of gold was trading at Rs 52,090 per 10
grams (8.12 pm IST); September 4 futures of silver was Rs 65,337 a kg.
Closure of
major mines, along with the gold rally and industrial demand, have been pushing
silver closer to a record high.
The gold market cycle generally lasts
8-10 years and according to experts, the bull run in the bullion has just
started. The previous bull cycle had commenced in 2001 and ended in 2011;
during which the metal had turned seven times costlier. After peaking, it had
slipped 46 % and consolidated for various years.
According to US-based analyst Nigam
Arora, the author of The Arora Report, “Gold has entered a bullish phase which
can last several years. We also think there is better than 50 percent
probability of gold approaching $3,000 in this cycle.” Earlier, Christopher
Wood had said in his Greed and Fear report that gold could climb up to $4,000
in the current bull cycle.
In India, the price of gold is usually determined by the cost of
import. Since gold is priced in dollars, depreciation in the India rupee keeps
its price and returns much higher.
So, should investors put money in gold amid this bull run?
Arora has a piece of advice for them: “In the short term, gold is technically
overbought and there is a resistance in the $1,900-$1,917 zones. If this
resistance is broken, the psychological number of $2,000 will act as a magnet
for traders. However, considering gold is technically overbought, it is
vulnerable to a sharp correction. In our view, a sharp correction, if it
occurs, must be bought.”
The risks
to the bullish phase are an early Covid-19 vaccine, an acceleration in economic
growth and a rise in interest rates. “It is important to stay nimble and alert
to new data,” he advised.
Even Ajay
Kedia of Kedia Advisory said: “Nothing is going to stop bulls from pushing the
gold price higher. However, at high levels, gold may see many investors booking
profit this week. Investors have to be cautious as the US Fed meeting is
scheduled on Wednesday. Hence, this week is crucial because it can either make
or break the rally in the gold price”. From a four-five-month horizon, gold
is worth buying, said experts.
Also,
silver is fast catching-up with the rally in gold. Arora said though decisive
signals on silver movement is awaited, in India, many have turned bullish.
Silver futures are already above Rs 65,000 per kg, and it is just 15 percent
away from the all-time high of Rs 75,000 seen in 2011.
Gnanasekar
Thiagarajan, CEO of Commtrendz Risk Management Services, said: “Until the
presidential election in the US is over, this uptrend is expected to continue.
By October/November, we expect gold to test $2350 and silver to test $29.70. In
the Indian markets, gold can touch Rs 60,000 and silver Rs 72,000 by Diwali.”
