According to Zenith’s newest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts research, global advertising spending will climb 8% in 2022. This is a decrease from Zenith’s December 2021 forecast of 9.1% growth. The Winter Olympics, midterm US elections, and soccer World Cup will boost growth in the run-up to Christmas, the most advertising-intensive season of the year. In 2023, growth will dip to 5.4% before the Olympics and US elections raise it to 7.6% in 2024.
Zenith predicts 12%, 7%, and 6% growth for North America, MENA, and Western Europe this year. Asia Pacific was boosted from 6% to 7% because to India’s good performance. Latin America was reduced from 9% to 8%. Severe disruption in Russia and its closest trade partners following the Ukraine invasion will lead to a 26% fall in ad spending in Central & Eastern Europe, even though most other markets will increase.
Advertiser demand drives media inflation, especially on television, where people are switching to alternatives. The worldwide average cost of TV advertising across all audiences is predicted to grow 11–13% this year. Online video rates are expected to rise by 7 per cent, but viewers are growing. Social media and other digital displays, where supply is rising, and quantities are flexible, will see a 3% average price hike. Out-of-home and radio costs will increase by 4% this year, but print pricing will continue since readership drops.
Zenith predicts online video to rise 15.4% annually between 2021 and 2024, powered by linked TV, ad-funded VOD, streaming, and other video formats. Connected TV is a significant video platform in the US, with greater penetration than cable TV, and in other areas, including Western Europe and the Asia Pacific.
SVOD providers like Netflix and Disney+ will accelerate growth by offering high-quality ad-funded packages. Mixed video-on-demand models that mix subscriptions and advertising will help internet video audiences develop globally by attracting those unwilling or unable to buy subscription-only services. Online video ad spending is expected to climb from $62 billion in 2021 to $95 billion in 2024.
Online video will surpass social media as the fastest-growing medium. Social media ad spending (including video advertisements in social media feeds) is still expected to rise at an average pace of 15.1% a year between 2021 and 2024, pushed by growing competition across platforms that are pushing format innovation and deeper integration with commerce.
Linear TV advertising is expected to expand by 1.1% a year between 2021 and 2024, from $173.6 billion to $179.2 billion, as price increases compensate for viewership loss. This reduction in reach and efficiency will push businesses to internet video. Television’s proportion of ad spend is expected to shrink from 24.6% in 2021 to 20.8% in 2024, while online video’s share rises from 8.8% to 11.1%. “Online video is developing by generating new chances for boosting brand awareness,” said Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting, Zenith. Online video will be half as expensive as TV by 2024.
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